Fooled by experience?
How to make the right decisions and let
experience not mislead you
How can we trust our past experiences in order to predict the future and make decisions? Experience can also fool us instead of being a reliable teacher.
When we want to learn from our experiences, we have to understand that experience is filtered by different factors such as the people, the business environment and also by our own biases.
We have to take all these filters into account in order to explore what de facto experience wants to really teach us.
As Drucker wrote, “The first rule in decision making is that one does not make a decision unless there is disagreement”. Hence instead of trusting our experience blindly, let us ask ourselves why we could not be wrong.
Second, zoom out and don’t focus solely on the experience itself. Maybe you could overlook unforeseen possibilities of the truth what could alter our view and how we create meaning. The story we may have created could be due to randomness or unseen factors.
After all, our whole range of experiences are only based on a small sample of life events.
Third, analyse the underlying processes instead of assuming future outcomes will correlate with prior outcomes.
If you are interested to read more, check out the research paper by Dr. Emre Soyer published in Harvard Business Review.
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